Wednesday, November 26, 2008

APOL Exit

I exited the second half of my position in APOL today at the close. I still like the stock, but it is very overbought at the moment. I'll look to re-enter on a pullback.

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Possible SKF entry

A little more bounce would provide a low risk entry in SKF, which gets you short financials:

Monday, November 24, 2008

Weekly Focus List and Free Trade Report

In today's Trade Report, I go over my plan for the week. One of the themes is the positive patterns developing in some commodity related sectors. Gold and Silver top the list.



In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I am offering today's Report to all of my readers.

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_4555wv7zfg






Friday, November 21, 2008

Support Becomes Resistance for SSO

Following the recent breakdown, old support has become resistance. This offers a low risk short entry near R levels.

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Divergence in T2108

It's interesting that the T2108 is not at new lows while SSO and QLD have hit new lows. This tells us that there are more stocks above their 40 day moving averaged now, at new lows, than there were at the last higher low. This positive divergence leads me to believe we could get a good bounce off a big down day.

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

RIMM: Patiently Awaiting Entry

I like RIMM's recent price and volume action. However, it is in overbought territory, so I'll wait for a pullback. The pullback must continue to create a nice accumulation pattern. High volume on the pullback negates the setup.

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Position Update

Position Update:

SSO: Entries at $25.10 and $25.24. Stop at $21.90. Current price $24.63 (-2.1%)

APOL: Entry at $67.50. Stop at $65.79. Partial profit at $71 (+5.1%). Current price $68.99 (+2.2%).

AFAM: Entry at $45.10. Stop at $43.90. Partial profit at $48.10 (+6.6%). Current price $46.89 (+3.9%).

FXI: Entry at $24.54. Stop at $22.45. Current price $24.28 (-1.1%)

ALK: Entry at $23.41. Stop at $21.90. Current price $25.35 (+8.2%).

LHCG: Entry at $31.44. Stop at $29.79. Partial profit at $34 (+8.1%). Current price $34.15 (+8.6%).

Monday, November 17, 2008

Today's Trades: APOL and AFAM

APOL and AFAM. Both have been on the focus list of the Trade Report since last week. I had buy stops in place near support and just exited half the positions. Stops have been moved up to entry level.



Friday, November 14, 2008

A Good Day and SSO Stop

Needless to say, today was a good day for me, as all four of my trades based on the "bottoming thesis" did quite well.

I received a number of questions about my stop on SSO. I'll go into more detail tomorrow. I was stopped out of half my position, but re-entered after the previous low was recaptured. More details to come.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Trade Update: SSO, FXI, ALK, LHCG

Here are the trades I made yesterday, as noted in the intraday alert I sent Trade Report members:

I made a few long entries earlier today. I decided to cut my position size from what I was originally planning. The lack of postive accumulation (volume) made it tough to make these trades, but I couldn't pass up the low risk setups.

Note that a lot of stocks on the watchlist violated my pullback rules by dropping on heavy volume or large price bars.

SSO @ $25.74 and $25.23
FXI @ $24.54 (My entry in the report was lower on this, but I really like the way it has held up)
ALK @ $23.41
LHCG @$31.44

My stops are in place and I am more than willing to take small losses.

OT: Poker and the $5915 Hand

Today I won the second biggest pot in my relatively short poker playing career--$5915.

Some of you may think I was crazy to call all-in with a two pair, but my bank roll could easily cover the loss and I had my opponent on a flush draw (he had made this exact same move an hour earlier and I had never seen him not raise big pre-flop when holding any type of pair), thus no worries of a set.

So basically, I had 65 percent odds that he would not make a flush. Now the move looks a lot better, and over time I'll make money on this type of play.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Quick Update

I just made a few buys, but decided to reduce position size more than my original plan. More details soon.

SSO Provides Low Risk Entry

While the "edge" or probability for the trade may be 50 percent or less (accumulation pattern is not what it was a week ago), SSO does provide a low risk entry point that can be easily managed with a stop under the recent lows.

I am willing to take low risk setups even if the probability for success is not what I like, especially when the reward is big. For example, if I entered with 500 shares, the most I would lose is $1000. My potential gain is $7000-10000 if the intial target is hit.

I could lose on this type of trade 6 times in a row and still make money if I hit on the 7th try. Thus, I'd only neeed to be right about 15 percent of the time to make it in the green.


Tuesday, November 11, 2008

The FXI Answer

I left my analysis of FXI open ended in the last post and a few of you seem to think I was bearish!

The pattern is in fact quite bullish, and points to a bottom formation. Compare the current volume pattern to that during the top and bear run. For the first time, positive volume exceeds negative volume, while price forms a volatile trading range at the lows. This is a bullish pattern!

However, lows can still be tested, so I will only enter on weakness.

China's Chart Give's a Clear Answer

The FXI weekly chart is quite illuminating and a good example of the importance of volume. What does the current volume pattern tell us? Compare to the previous volume patterns during the top and bear run, and the answer is clear . . .

Monday, November 10, 2008

Monday's Game Plan

Here's the game plan for Monday. I am pleased to see a number of breakout-pullback setups forming. It's been a while since I've been able to trade this break and butter setup

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_418dqr8n3gm

Today is the last day of the free trade reports.

Friday, November 07, 2008

Game Plan for Friday and Free Trade Report

While the bottom formation still is intact, I am not quite as optimistic due to the negative volume over the past two days. For more detailed analysis, view today's free trade report:

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_415gwthtzfj

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Taking Profits in FSLR Short

I exited the remaing 100 shares of the FSLR short at $141.84.

The original short entry was at $176.18. I took partial profits at $159.76 and $141.84, making the average exit for the 200 shares $150.80 ($5076 gain).

The setup for the trade was laid out in the Trade Report. For more info on subscribing, click here.



The setup for the trade was laid out in the Trade Report. For more info on subscribing, click here.

Game Plan for Thursday and Free Trade Report

The market has been easy to game this week, and my trades have worked out well. It's probably too late to enter short positions, so now we let our current positions work themselves out and wait for a pullback to get long again. For in depth analysis of my plan for Thursday and a review of current trades, take a look at the free trade report:

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_411cwvwbmfm


Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Taking Partial Profits in FSLR Short

I just took partial profits in FSLR at $159.66 (entry at $176.18) for a one day $1652 gain. I am still short 100 shares and have moved my stop to entry level.

My next target is the $140-150 range. I will exit the rest of the positon if it reaches that level.

While I mentioned the trade after I made it here, I outlined my plan for the trade the night before in the trade report. You can see that report here:

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_399fj2sxvgw

Wednesday Game Plan and Free Trade Report

Some of my subscribers have had trouble receiving my reports, so I will be providing the Trade Report for everybody here on the site this week. I hope to have everything cleared up by the weekend. Until then, enjoy the reports.

Here are this week's reports, including the game plan for tomorrow.

November 4. 2008: http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_406c4b4ssgj

November 3, 2008: http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_399fj2sxvgw

November 2, 2008: http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_395c76p6hgv

October 31, 2008: http://docs.google.com/View?docid=d5z8q8w_390dcbs9pzm

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Note to Subscribers

A few subscribers have not received recent reports. I am looking into it and have more info tonight.

Overbought Market

The market is short term overbought, so I took a stab at a few short positions. I noted FSLR in the trade report last night, and it gapped right into my entry level. I'll have more details in the evening.

Monday, November 03, 2008

Education Stocks Showing Accumulation and Relative Strength

A few sectors asserted themselves during last week's market up move. Education stocks are on fire and showing buying interest from the big boys. While most stocks are coming off bottoms and nearing resistance levels, education stocks are near recent highs.

Focus list stocks include EDU, DV, CPLA and APOL.