Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Today's Trade: FLR, VMX, MICC, DRYS, CTRP, FWLT

I sold 300 shares of VMX at $124.25 (entry at $111.24) for a $3879 gain (+11.6%). A post earnings IPO play that has done as expected.

I sold 300 shares of MICC at $111.13 (entry at $100.63) for a $3150 gain (+10.4%). This was another post earnings breakout play that worked out well.

I sold 300 shares of SAY at $29.74 (entry at $28.42) for a $396 gain (+4.6%). While I hate to complain about a 4% gain, the stock has not jumped post earnings in concert with the Indian market, which is booming.

I was stopped out of 300 shares of DRYS yesterday. I entered $124.20 and was stopped out at $119.54 for a $1398 loss (-3.8%). A speculative trend pullback play that backfired.

Yesterday, I bought 300 shares of CTRP at $55.08. This is a breakout and China play. The stock immediately went down after I bought and printed a bearish engulfing candle pattern, though has recoved today.

I bought 150 shares of FWLT at $148.10. A trend pullback play.

Today, I bought 250 shares of FLR at $159.21 on a pullback to the 50 day moving average.



I am holding RIMM, AAPL, BHP, PCU, FWLT, FLR, CTRP. I might lighten up before the Fed meeting.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Five Explosive Breakouts

Here are five explosive breakouts that I will be watching very closely:

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Short Candidate: Honeywell

Due to the fact that we have been in a solid uptrend, I haven't pointed out many short candidates over the past few months. While the market is currently in a state of flux, I am still hesitant to fire off a big batch of shorts since we are still in an uptrend. Although there has been some recent high volume weakness and distribution days, the trend doesn't change until major support levels have broke on high volume. That has not happened yet.

If you plan to go short this market, make sure to do so with extreme care and risk aversion. With that said, here is a stock on my primary short watchlist. I am not sure if I'll pull the trigger.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

A Blast From the Past: Criminal Minds

A little over a year ago, I posted quotes from the hit TV show Criminal Minds that related to trading. Surprisingly, it's been one of the site's most popular posts. It seems a lot of civilians (aka non-traders) search Criminal Minds quotes on google. Here is the post in it's entirety:

One of my favorite shows on television is Criminal Minds, which I feel is the smartest show on television. The quotes alone are worth the price of admission. Here are a few that could be applied to trading. Take a read and think about how each quote relates to trading. You can learn more about each author by clicking on the name.

Emerson said, "All is riddle, and the key to a riddle is another riddle."

Faulkner once said, "Don't bother just to be better than your contemporaries or predecessors. Try to be better than yourself."

Einstein once said, "Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world."

Samuel Johnson wrote, "Almost all absurdity of conduct arises from the imitation of those who we cannot resemble."

Shakespeare wrote, "Nothing is so common as the wish to be remarkable." "When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

Robert Oxton Bolton once wrote, "A belief is not merely an idea the mind possesses; it is an idea that possesses the mind."

Nietzsche wrote, "The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe."

Albert Einstein said, "Whoever undertakes to set himself up as judge in the field of truth and knowledge is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."

"The defects and faults of the mind are like wounds in the body; after all imaginable care has been taken to heal them up, still the will be a scar left behind." French writer François de la Rochefoucauld. "

"It has been said, 'time heals all wounds.' I do not agree. The wounds remain. In time, the mind, protecting its sanity, covers them with scar tissue and the pain lessens. But it is never gone." Rose Kennedy

Philosopher Kahlil Gibran wrote "Out of suffering have emerged the strongest souls; the most massive characters are seared with scars."

Gideon (character on show): "Try again. Fail again. Fail better."

Friday, October 26, 2007

Quickie Trade Updates: RIMM and TOL

I bought 400 shares of RIMM at $118.91. This is a break-out pullback play.



I'm short another 200 shares of TOL at $23.24.



Update: I bought 300 shares of VMW at $111.24. Another breakout-pullback play.

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Top Performing Focus List Stocks

Here are today's top performers from my focus list. Many are either post earnings movers (a la AKAM, GLDN, VMW, WX, ISRG, YUM) or industrial/chem/ag related stocks, which provides a clue as to what is working in the current market. I have marked a few of these as buys on pullback.


Quickie Trade Note: TOL, MICC and SAY

I bought SAY at $28.42 (earnings breakout-pullback) and short TOL at $23.05. I also took profits in MICC at $108.17. I'd like to buy more of MICC on pullback.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Earnings Breakout Chart: EDU

EDU broke out from a cup and handle formation and is currently digesting gains. Notice the positive volume trend, which signals that big players are accumulating the stock. I am looking for a breakout-pullback play, and will look to enter on a pullback to the $70-72 range.

Today's Trades: MICC, ISRG and SGR

I bought 300 shares of MICC at $100.63. The stock broke out over resistance on heavy volume after their earnings release. I bought today's pullback to the breakout point.

I sold the remaing 150 shares of ISRG at an average price of $310.15 (entry at $276.44, sold first 150 shares at $278) for a $5,056 gain (+12.1%). This one's my trade of the year.

I sold 300 shares of SGR at $72.04 (entry at $68) for a $1212 gain (+5.6%). I still like this one as a post earnings breakout play. I decided to exit because of the "Cramer pop." Cramer featured the stock on his show "Mad Money" last night. I suspect the stock will come back in a little in the coming days.

MICC Chart:

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Today's Trades: AAPL, JASO, EDU

I bought 300 shares of AAPL at $185.09, using my earnings setup. Historically, high volume gaps, especially those that are earnings related, have triggered bullish runs in this stock. I would not be surprised to see this earnings gap propel the stock to the $200 level.



I sold 300 shares of JASO at $55.05 (entry at $49.10) for a $1785 gain (+10.8%). My target for this trade was hit this morning.

I sold 200 shares of EDU at $76.62 (entry at $73.10) for a $704 gain (+4.8%). I will buy this stock again if it pulls back to the breakout point.

I am holding ISRG, BHP, SGR and AAPL. I may exit ISRG later today since my target has been hit.

6 Resilient Stocks to Trade on the Long Side

My last post laid out a game plan for trading in queezy markets, not unlike the one we are currently facing. Here are six stocks from my focus list that satisfy the third point, which tells us to monitor stocks that are doing well in the face of a strong market sell off.

Monday, October 22, 2007

Game Plan for Trading a Queezy Market

Trading after strong distribution days, which have the potential to change the nature of the market, isn't easy. For me, it's the toughest period to trade. Since we don't know if this is a correction or a change in trend, we must be ready for either event. I do this by following a strict game plan.

The Game Plan:

1. Identify major support levels in the indexes and see if they hold.

2. Watch volume patterns. Are bounces on strong or weak volume? Are dips supported buy underlying strength? Do this for indexes and stocks of interest.

3. Monitor stocks that are doing well in the face of market sell offs. Place these stocks at the top of your bullish watchlist.

4. Make a list of short candidates. Stocks in the midst of downtrends should lead this list. A weak market bounce is the time to enter stocks from this list.

Later tonight or tomorrow morning I will post a list of stocks from my focus list that are bullish candidates based on their action the past two days.

Trade Update

Over the past couple of days, I've been stopped out of PCU ($127.90), OII ($76.66), BLUD ($35.76) for losses.

I bought 300 shares of ISGR on Friday on a dip of the earnings breakout, at $267.44. I sold half my position today at $278 and am holding the rest.

Still holding NVDA, BHP, JASO, EDU, SGR, BIDU.

I am looking to short housing stocks if they continue to bounce. For instance, I'd like to short DHI if it reached the $13-14 range.

Some of the highflyers have come back to buyable levels. However, it's tough to buy right now with the market as shaky as it it. Also, many have reached buyable levels on gaps down with heavy volume, which is not the type of pullback I like to see. For example, FWLT is in my buyzone, but reached it buy gapping down.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Will the Market Post Another Distribution Day?

I have to admit I am a little surprised by today's action. Due to Google's glowing results, oversold conditions and the the historically postive results for October 19th (since Black Monday), my expectations for today leaned to the bullish side.

With about 2 1/2 hours left before the close, it looks like we might get our second distribution day in two weeks. If this happens, it will definately put a damper on my bullish bias.

To add fuel to the fire, the S&P 500 has dipped below it's 20 day moving average with authority. Next stop is the 50 day and the September breakout bar. To remain bullish, the market will have to maintain this level next week. If the market can close off today's lows, that will also be a good sign for bulls.

I have received a number of e-mails asking me what I am doing with my long positions. I'm holding steady and honoring my stops. If I get stopped out, it won't kill me. Considering the insane gains many of us have made during the past couple of months, a few small losses will be little more than an annoyance.


Today's Trade: PCU

I bought 100 shares of PCU at $133.20.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Is this Oversold Market Ready to Bounce?

Let's take a look at a chart of the S&P 500:



What jumped out at me is that the index has, without fail, bounced when reaching oversold conditions in stochastics and RSI. We've reached that level again, and as candlestick officionados will point out, the last two days have printed long tails at support. These two factors lead me to believe another bounce is around the corner.

This is part of the reason why I am holding my longs in the face of a minor correction and went long NVDA today. However, I am not going "all in" to the long side. I still am not using my normal position size (500-700 shares) and am vigilantly noting where my stops are. We cannot ignore last Thursday's distribution day.

Today's Trade: NVDA

NVDA broke out over a month long trading range yesterday, making new highs on strong volume. Voume patterns suggest accumulation. I used today's weakness for entry.

I bought 400 shares at $38.52.


Wednesday, October 17, 2007

AAPL's New High a Market Tell?

After Thursday's distribution day, I noted that we need to focus on leading momentum stocks to gauge the market's health. If these stocks could mount Thursday's losses and get back to new highs, it would signal a new leg to the bull run.

AAPL is one of the first leading mojo stocks to negate Friday's losses. I will continue to watch the leaders from my focus list to determine where the market is headed in the coming months.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Today's Trades: SGR, OII, BHP, JASO, EDU

I am using today's dip to buy stocks from strong sectors nearing support. I made the following trades:

300 shares of SGR at $68.00. This is an infrastructure and post earnings suprise play.

300 shares of OII at $78.50. I've been waiting for this energy stocks to pullback near 20 day moving average support.

200 shares of BHP at $82.70. I bought this one at the 10 day moving average, which hs provided support for this high flying energy/metals/coal play since mid August.

300 shares of JASO at $49.10. It's a high flying chinese solar stock. Need I say more?

200 shares of EDU at $73.10. Education stocks have been on fire for quite some time (see also CPLA). The stock surprised on earnings yesterday and I bought today on pullback near the earnings breakout point.

Today's Focus

I'm using weakness today to buy oil related stocks. Also on the radar are industrial chemicals, farm, metals and some select tech stocks. Basically, stocks from the strong sectors I pointed to on Sunday.

I'll have more details later today.

Sunday, October 14, 2007

10 Sectors to Play if You are a Bull

Here are the best performing sectors over the past week. If we get a signal to go long, these are the sectors you want to put in play.



On Thursday I put forth a short strategy that attacks momentum stocks that are extended, handled Thursday's correction poorly, and fail to mount there highs in the near future. You can bet I will avoid stocks from these 10 sectors if I apply a short strategy. Amazingly, 9 of these 10 sectors were up on Thursday. Only copper in the red, though it did rally away from the lows of the day.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Watch Leading Momentum Stocks for Market Tell

Well, so far we have not seen any follow through on yesterday's decline. I'm still not convinced it was a one day thing, so I'll be watching momentum names that have lead the market over the last few months very closely.

Take AAPL. While it's bounced nicely this morning, we really don't yet know if this is a "dead cat bounce" or a solid recovery. The tell here is if AAPL can break 170.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

Play this Market by Preparing for All Possibilities

Was this a temporary correction, the start of a deep correction, or the end of the line for the bull market? That's the question everybody is asking, and nobody knows (no matter what they tell you).

I'm not about to make a guess. Instead, I'm preparing myself for whatever comes our way. Tomorrow I will post stocks from my short and long watchlists. The short term short watchlist features stocks the most extended momentum stocks that posted big drops today on enormous volume. Most of these stocks feature bearish engulfing candle patterns.

The long watchtlist features stocks that handled the day well, either posting small losses or gains. A key element to this list is stocks that dropped had to have done so on declining volume. These stocks may still drop if there is a correction, but they stand a better chance of holding at support levels.

Here is a chart of the S&P 500. I've marked the major support levels that need watching over the next week. It is encouraging that the index bounced off it's lows, which ripped through the old highs, and closed above that key level.



I closed all of my positions today, with the exception of BLUD. I will post specifics tomorrow.

Today's Trade: BLUD and BIDU

My first post-earnings play of the season is BLUD. Immucor surpassed expectations Thursday and is now consolidating it's big high volume spike. OBV looks good and there's a nice volume pattern forming.

I bought 400 shares at $38.25.



Update: I bought 40 shares of BIDU at $321.23. Pullback is a bit harsh, but I'm guessing it's an overreaction to JP Morgan comments. My stop is at $310, making this a low risk speculative play.

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Where is the Dip?



Like many traders, I'm having a hard time finding entry points. CPLA is a good example of most stocks on my focus list. The stock that is extended and just won't quit going up.

There are three logical ways to play this market:

1) Jump in now, which is probably the most nerve racking option since the bottom could drop at any time. When it does drop, it will likely be deep since there is alot of room to fall before reaching meaningful support levels.

2) Wait for a pullback to support. This one's the most prudent strategy, but also the most frustrating as stocks continue to climb.

3) Get short. Those that like to use the "reversion to the mean" strategy are licking their chops right, shorting the momentum stocks. Another short strategy is to short weak stocks.

I am using a combination of the three strategies. I am waiting for pullbacks in momentum stocks like FWLT, AAPL and FLR, which are too extended to buy at these levels. Meanwhile, I'm getting short weak stocks in weak sectors (like DHI from the housing sector). I am willing to get long some high fliers that have recently broke out on high volume, like RIMM.

6 Stock to Buy on a Dip

The market is now in extremely overbought territory, which is why I actually deployed a short today (DHI- a housing stock at the top of it's downward trend channel). It's seems like ages since I've shorted a stock, and believe it or not, I love shorting!

Along with my primary long watchlist, which consists of weaker support levels that are close to current price, I'm making a list of stocks to buy on deeper dips to stronger support levels.

Six stocks on this list (with entry points) include VDSI (36), CPLA (57), VIP (26), PCU (115), AAPL (150) and BRCM (37).

Monday, October 08, 2007

Today's Trades: RIMM, DHI, TBSI

I added to my position in RIMM, buying 200 shares at $115.27.

I went short 300 shares of DHI at $14.63. The housing stock is at the top of it's downward trending channel.

I bought 300 shares of TBSI at an average price of $45.53. Over the weekend I decided to buy TBSI at the open. I wanted to ride the shipping wave some more, and DSYS and EXM were too extended for me to enter.

I bought 300 shares of MT at $76.33. Volume has been weak on the pullback and the stock is nearing support.

5 Sectors to Watch this Week

I will be watching the following sectors closely this week:


Industrial Metals recently broke out to new highs and is now consolidating gains. I am looking for low volume weakness in the sector's strongest stocks, which include FDG, BOOM and BBL.

Friday, October 05, 2007

Applying the Strategic Elements of Sports to Trading

Trading psychologist Brett Steenbarger wrote an excellent post relating sports psychology to trading. I highly recommend it to anybody in the trading game.

This paragraph struck a cord with me:

"The finding that experts in a particular sport are better than novices, not merely at physical skills but also on the underlying perceptual, cognitive, and strategic components of sport, is robust in both laboratory and field research" (quoting Dr. Janet Starkes). In other words, when people become skilled, they literally learn to see things in new ways and think in new ways. It's not just a difference of hardware (having better memory, vision, or concentration); experts develop their own software: internal programs that enable them to recognize patterns and act upon them rapidly.

Here is some of my own anecdotal evidence. During my sophomore year, I was the most talented player on my high school basketball team. I knew it, my teammates knew it, and my coach knew it. When we played on the playgrounds, I was almost always the first or second pick and would dominate the games. However, during a camp before the season, these same players schooled me. It was disheartening and I was completely embarrassed. I was the guy that would screw up, get blasted by the coach and have to run extra to make up for my mistakes.

One day after practice, the coach called me into his office and explained to me that the kids I was playing with had been a part of school's feeder system and had been playing organized ball since they were seven years old (I had never played because my parents wanted me to focus on studies). They had a better "feel" for the game and could see things that I couldn't. The only way I'd make the team was by working on my "basketball IQ".

After this talk, I dedicated myself to understanding the game. Not only would I attend my own team's practices, I would sit in on the freshman and junior varsity practices. I taped tons of college and NBA games and devoured every book on basketball strategy I could find. My parents even shelled out some big bucks so I could attend the Michael Jordan camp.

It all paid off. By the end of the season, I understood things about the game that I was clueless about before. For example, I learned that basketball is a game of different speeds and misdirection. Whereas before I would run to a spot and cut all in one speed, I'd now go half speed to the spot and explode on the cut. Before the cut, I would look at the player guarding the lane. If he was eying the guy with the ball and not taking in the entire court, I knew the lane would be open.

Here is another "pattern" that I had figured out through watching tapes and repetition in practice. If a player guarded me with his right foot way in front of his left, I knew he liked to push the ball handler to the right and was susceptible to a crossover. I would be able to drive into the lane at will against this guy. This, and the observation above, is something I had never thought about before. Now, it was second nature. You could say I had an "internal program" that would process the patterns in a way that would never work if I actually had to ask myself "where is his foot" during a game.

I can see this starting to happen in trading as well. Maybe it's because of my background and the need I feel to practice, but I rarely use scans, although many are readily available to me. Every night I start charting by looking at sectors that interest me for one reason or another. From there, I go through all the stocks in those sectors (I like to use prophet.net for this). This used to take a long time, as I would go through what I was looking for in each individual stock, point by point. Now, I look at a chart and within a few seconds I either toss it and move on or put it in my watchlist for further study. It doesn't even feel like I'm thinking anymore. I just "know" that stock works for me. It's the "internal program" again. Interestingly, I don't use indicators on my preliminary "toss or watch" analysis, but when I later scrutinize the "watch" stocks with indicators, they almost always are at important levels (for instance, an oversold Stochastic or diverging MACD).

The moral of this long winded story is that it's not the most talented players that become champions, it's the players with the best understanding of the game. This applies to any field, including our own. You gain that understanding with a strong work ethic, practice and in-depth analysis. Hey, if you don't believe me, ask yourself this question: Why is it that Larry Bird has plenty of championship hardware while the likes of J.R. Rider and Christian Laettner have none? Or for the non-sports inclined, why is it that Marty Schwartz can make millions trading while so many high IQ professionals come away from trading scarred for life? I'm willing to bet it has a little something to do with what we just talked about.

Again, please make sure to read the good doctor's post, and apply his teaching to your own trading.

Update: I wrote this post about a year ago and reprinted it today. Since that time, I have implemented a few daily and weekly scans. However, I still rely heavily on sector reviews. Both methods (scans and sector reviews) rely heavily on recognizing chart and volume patterns.

Today's Trades: LULU and RIMM

I bought 400 shares of LULU at $44.80. I like LULU as a developing hot momentum play to be bought on dips.


I bought 300 shares of RIMM at $110.12. Strong accumulation on this trending stock leads me to believe the response to earnings is the start of a new leg higher.

Chart: LVS

LVS has shown solid accumulation during the uptrend. If today's hammer is confirmed by a close above $130 tomorrow, we could see another leg up.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

10 Greatest Quarterbacks Since 1980

As many of you have probably figured out, I am a sports junkie. Today at work we had a lively, bordering on heated, debate over all-time great quarterbacks. I know alot of you are football fans, so I figured I'd post my thoughts. I am ranking the top 10 quarterbacks since 1980, which is when I started watching football as a five year old.

The top 5
1. Joe Montana: Simply put, the greatest quarterback I've ever watched. Growing up a diehard Niner fan, he amazed me week in and week out. He didn't have the strongest arm or the most atheletic ability, but he could read defenses like no other and threw with the most beautiful touch of any QB ever to play the game.

2. Tom Brady: The second coming of Montana, Brady grew up idolizing the Niner legend. Brady and I were both watching Joe at the same time, pretending to be Joe cool in our backyards while tossing passes to an imaginary Jerry Rice. Brady became a quarterback. I, of course, didn't.

The similaraties between the two players is eerie. Both were backups in college that rose to the occasion when they got their opportunities. Neither was a first round draft pick or part of their professional team's future plans. Both played for coaches that are considered football genuises. Both were overshadowed early in their career by QB's with better stats (Manning and Marino). Both are defined by their decision making under pressure and of course, Super Bowls.

Now that Brady finally has a receiving core that rivals that of the Colts, it's going to be fun watching him fill up the stat line.

3. Steve Young: I know many of you are going to think that, as a 49ers fan, my bias is what placed Young this high. Let me start by saying that in the beginning, I despised Young. I was a Montana fan and found Young's pandering for the starting job off putting.

In time a came to appreciate Young's unique abilities. Not only was he a great, accurate quarterback, he was a leader. And of course, there were his legs. The Niners did not have a great offensive line. As banged up as he would get during games, I can't imagine what would have happened to him without his running ability. I firmly believe he could have been an All-Pro running back if he wanted. In fact, Walsh was tempted to use him in that capacity while Young was backing up Montana. I don't know if we'll ever see a quarterback that that could run *and* pass at such a high level.

4. Peyton Manning: I don't know if any quarterback has ever prepared for a game the way Manning does. When he steps back behind the center, you get the feeling that he knows everything that could happen on the field and has practiced for every remote possibility.

While Manning has a lively arm, it's not a cannon. He just knows how to get the ball out and has the quickest release since Marino. We all know he's going to break every record in the books. However, for Peyton to overtake Brady, he's going to have to win some more Super Bowls.

5. Dan Marino: Bar none, the best pure passer to play the game, Marino had a cannon arm to go along with a quick release. It's hard to believe that such an immobile guy had such low sack numbers.

It's too bad Marino never made it back to the Super Bowl, after getting thumped in 1984 by my Niners. I honestly think he was part of the problem. The coaches relied too much on Marino, failing to develop a decent running game. On top of that, when they did run, Marino whined about not passing more. Still, I can't deny Marino's greatness.

The rest of the top 10:
6. Brett Favre
7. John Elway
8. Jim K elly
9. Kurt Warner
10. Dan Fouts


Honorable Mention: Boomer Esiason, Warren Moon, Rich Gannon, Carson Palmer, Jeff Garcia, Trent Green, Randall Cunningham

Overrated: Donavan McNabb, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw

I just missed out on a $1400 gain! (and NOV trade)

This morning I placed a buy stop for 100 shares of BIDU at $305, using my "buy the weakness" strategy for the stock. As you can see from the chart below, the stock dipped to $306 before rocketing to $318.



Trading can be a frustrating game. I'm going to have to put this miss in the rearview mirror and focus.

I did buy 400 shares of NOV at an average price of $71.84.

Wednesday, October 03, 2007

Today's Focus List Top 25

On days the feature broad based selling, like today, it is a good idea to keep tabs on the stocks that ignored market weakness. Today only 33 of the 120 stocks in my focus list made positive gains. Here are the top 25:

Tuesday, October 02, 2007

The Bidu Trade: Luck or Skill?

KR asked the following question about my BIDU trade:

"BIDU was based on luck or trading secret? Other than oversold indication at Stochastic, I did not see any reason to jump in before seeing some more weakness. What was the reason to jump in Y'day for you?"

Since I started this blog and documenting trades, I can't count the number of e-mails I've received calling me lucky. I always reply, "how can anybody be so consistently lucky?"

While I can't say I expected BIDU to shoot up over 30 points just one day after I entered, there is a method to my madness, and it certainly doesn't involve luck. If you understand the intricacies of money flow, volume patterns and market psychology, there is a good chance "luck" will be on your side.

A number of people have asked why I entered BIDU when there didn't seem to be a great setup. While the stock had pulled back, it was extended far from it's base and did not have perfect "pullback" technicals (such as an oversold stochastic reading). As many of you know, I am willing to deviate from "perfect" setups from time to time, especially in overzealous markets. The key when deviating is understanding market psychology and volume patterns.

I've talked volume patterns to death on this blog, so now I'll focus on market psychology. Over the last quarter, BIDU has been one of the best performing momentum plays. It's parabolic rise has made those who did not jump in feel left out. When dealing with a stock like this, traders who are afraid to enter on strength will use any sort of pullback to jump in.

Based on this psychology, when the stock reached $300 I marked the gap at $280 as a good entry point. With a normal stock, I wouldn't even look at this level as there isn't a ton of support there. However, this ain't no normal stock. Who wants to miss out on trading the Google of China? Taking the psychological factor into account, I felt $280 would hold.


Today's Trades: BIDU, LULU, OII, NOV, AEM, NILE

I sold 70 shares of BIDU at $312.14 (entry at $284.26) for a $1951 gain (+9.8%). I believe this was the first time I have ever traded BIDU, and judging from the results, probably won't be my last. I will likely continue to buy on weakness.

I sold 400 shares of LULU at $46.45 (entry at $41.78) for a $1868 gain (+11.1%). Another stock that will continue to rest at the top of my watchlist. I forgot to post this trade, so feel free to disregard results if you wish.

I sold 200 shares of OII at $76.98 (entry at $71.25) for a $1146 gain (+8.1%). Again, a stock I like on weakness.

I took some feeler positions in AEM, NILE and NOV, which I will detail tonight.

Monday, October 01, 2007

Chart: OII

Oceaneering Internat (OII) has consistently been a buy on pullbacks to the 20 day moving average. This is a "keep it simple, stupid" trade, which is why I did not add any indicators to this chart. Why complicate maters? I will likely enter on a low volume pullback to the moving average.

Watchlist and BIDU Position

I took a small position in BIDU on weakness this morning, buying 70 shares at an average price of $284.26. My initial target is the recent high at $300.

Stocks I'm monitoring closely include: FCX, SLB, NOV, BHP, AEM, EWZ, DGIT, DWSN, NILE and TBSI.