Friday, September 29, 2006

Market Scribbles and a Clip

During the trading day, I am not at the computer for long stretches. Therefore, I keep a written journal in which I scribble notes. Here are today's scribbles copied from my journal, which may not all make sense since they are notes to myself:

Many energy, metal and gold stocks have pushed up towards resistance. Watch this area closely as it should tell you whether this bounce is truly a new upswing or nothing more than a "dead cat bounce".

I still don't trust this upmove. So many reasons why:
*Volume stinks.
*Big caps don't lead bull markets. The fact that tech, transports, banks, mid caps, small caps and semis have not kept up is a bad sign.
*Rotation into big caps is a sign of the final phase of a bull market.
*New highs have not increased and new lows have not decreased enough to support a bull market.
*Even within the DJIA, only a few stocks have reached all time highs, while a few are way off the highs. There is a big divergence in terms of what the DJIA is doing as an index and what the individual components are doing.
*There's a lack of high flying momentum stocks. Boring moves dont' make for a bull market.
*Historically, strong Septembers are followed by weak Octobers.
*Most importantly, my own personal watchlists show more shorts than longs

The inverted yield curve . . .more bearish news.

The longer the bulls have control, the harder the fall will be. I'm ready and can't wait.

Play the upmove, but be ready to jump off at a moments notice with tight stops and plenty of shorts on the watchlist.

HP will survive the scandal. However, they may not survive many more stupid moves like today's Voodoo acquisition.

Song From the Playlist:
This classic by Earth, Wind and Fire typifies what September was like for the bulls

Thursday, September 28, 2006

How to Play Energy: XLE and Stochastics

XLE has been an easy play over the past year. You buy when the stochastic hits oversold extreme levels and sell when it gets overbought.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Today's Trade: GG. The Market. And the "Angry Professor" Clip

I sold 200 shares GG at $23.75 for a $408 gain. I still own 150 shares.

I am still have my long position in FLIR.

We've all heard the media pumping the market highs crap. We as traders know that the market is not as great as they make it sound. The fact that 30 big caps are doing great doesn't mean squat for the market as a whole. In this case, it might even be a bad thing, as it looks like stocks have been rotating into the big "safe" stocks, and moving out of the real market movers (tech and mid caps). The S&P and the Nasdaq, while decent, are not in quite the same shape. More importantly, new highs/lows, advance/decline and volume are not at "bull market levels". I personally am waiting for a fall, and will be ready to go into short mode on a moments notice. The bounces we've seen in tech, semis, energy and metals make these my primary short candidates.

Speaking of media hype, check out this post by Tim Knight. This is one of the best market blog posts I've read in a long time. He pulls up a fascinating Time magazine article from 40 years ago, when the market was about to reach an all time high at 1,000, and points out that the main concerns were "an unpopular war, tax concerns, economy concerns, and all the rest, the Dow is blasting to ungodly highs". It's true that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Also note that the market tanked shortly after the article was published.

Off topic:
This angry professor does what we all want to do when we are dealt a jerk that has no cell phone etiquette, and his lecture doesn't skip a beat.


Quotation: Jesse Livermore on Self Confidence

"A man must believe in himself and his judgement if he expects to make a living at this game."

-quote from legendary trader Jesse Livermore.

I keep this quote, along with many others, by my desk to make sure I trust my own analysis. In the past, and even now occasionally, I would lose so much confidence in my own judgements (usually after listening to a CNBC or online pundit) that I would actually back out of existing positions, only to see them do exactly as I had expected. Luckily, with experience I've gained some confidence as well. For example, over the past few days I've received a number of emails telling me I am wrong about the GG trade, and that my expectations for oil and metals over the short term is off or too risky. In the past I probably would have thought, "even though it looks good to me, all these smart people can't be wrong". Not anymore. Only time will tell if I can make a "living at this game", but right or wrong, I'm going to trust my own judgment.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

Today's Trades: GG, STLD and FLIR

Those candles I pointed to last night did exactly as expected, and I couldn't be happier. It was a frantic morning for me, trying to keep up with the strong open for many, many stocks in these two sectors.

GG had a strong day and may have more bounce left. I still own 350 shares, and won't hesitate to protect profits if there is weakness.













I bought 500 shares STLD at $48.40. While the stock looks ready to break resistance at 50, I decided to take my profits and run. The fact that 50 was both a breakdown point and is a round number made it an easy decision. My limit sell order was easily hit at $49.90 for a $750 profit (+3.01%). I may look to re-enter if the stock easily breaks 50.













I bought 500 shares of FLIR at $26.85. The stock has been in an uptrend and looks to be rebounding from a slight pullback. Take a look at both the 10 minute and daily charts below. The fact that the stock closed strong on high volume is encouraging.

Monday, September 25, 2006

Charts of FWLT and T, Along with Discussion of Sectors Printing Hammers and Divergences

Many of the beaten down sectors printed hammers (candles with long tails that close near the high of the day). Hammers can signal the reversal of a downtrend, as buyers jump in after the weakest hands have been shaken out, especially if the hammer prints at strong support. The prudent trader will watch the next trading session to make sure a reversal is at hand, rather than blindly jumping in. I'll be watching oil, steel, coal and gold stocks. Some of my favorites that printed hammers include CHK, AAUK, STLD, CMC, and OIS. These are "short term long" setups. Once the stocks near resistance, I will probably be looking to short again.

There has been a rotation into big cap stocks, with many at or near 52 week highs. However, I would be weary of entering long, and am licking my chops to go short. Why? Take a look at the RSI on these stocks. Some major divergences are forming, as the stocks reach price highs while RSI falls. T(AT&T, Inc.) exemplifies the chart of many big cap stocks:


















FWLT
(Foster Wheeler Corp.) may be bouncing off support. Keep an eye on the support and resistance lines shown in the chart below.

Today's Trade: GG

I'm seeing some of the same divergences in gold stocks that I posted in HAL last night; specifically stochastics, MACD and RSI all moving up while price has moves down. I decided to take a position in GG instead of HAL since PBV bars in GG indicate support close to my entry.

I bought 300 shares GG at $21.71, with $21 the most likely stop price. This is a risky trade that I would not advise to those without a high risk tolerence, which is why I went with a smaller position size than normal.

Chart: HAL

RSI, Stochastic and MACD divergences could mean HAL (Halliburton CO.) is ready for a short term bounce.

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Enjoy the Weekend with These Clips

For all da white boyz in da house!


This ones uncalled for!


George Bush Remix

Friday, September 22, 2006

Today's Trades: BOOM, CAL, BBBY, HP, GROW, UARM

I covered the remaining 200 shares of BOOM at $32.90 for a$556 gain (+7.9%). The entire BOOM short made $925. While it still looks like a good short, I took profits at the 50 day MA.

I covered the remaining 300 shares of CAL at $28.45 for a $513 gain (+5.7%). The entire CAL short made $882. I might short it again if it breaks $28.

I covered all 250 shares of BBBY at $37.70 for a $37.70 loss (-.5%).

I covered all 250 shares of HP at $22.20 for a $345 gain (+7%).

I mentioned in last night's chart that I'd go short GROW if it brokedown below $30. This one set up *beautfully*. I went short 600 shares at $29.40 and covered at $27.53 for a $1122 gain (+6.4%).

I covered all 250 shares of UARM at $40.25 for a loss of 92.50 (-.93%).

This is one of those lucky Friday's that makes the coming weekend look downright sunny, even though Saturday's forecast calls for rain. Today's take was $2405.80. The account, which started at $25,000 on 9/5/06, is now at $27,749.50 (+11%)

I currently am in 100 percent cash, but may make some plays near the close today.

King Bush and Oil

In case you missed this much reported comparison, here's a chart showing just how closely related Bush's approval ratings are to the price of gas. How does this effect us as traders? Simply put, there is no way in hell I would be long oil at election time, both this season and in 2008. King Bush and his cronies are masters of protecting their own self serving interests.


Thursday, September 21, 2006

Chart: GROW

One of the market's favorite recent momentum plays, GROW (U.S. Global Investors, Inc.), has run into a bit of trouble. I am monitoring the developing $30-34 range. A breakout in either direction will likely get me into the stock, although would prefer a breakdown since I have a bearish bias right now. Keep an eye out for a break of $30 tomorrow, since it is treading at that level. A few nice things in play for a short setup: RSI has broken below 70, MACD has been in a downtend and is about to cross zero, and the next area of support is at $26.

Today's Trades: CAL, HAL, HP, BOOM, BBBY and UARM

I covered 250 shares of HP at $23.30 for a $270 gain (4.6%). When the stock had broken down to $23.15, I moved my stop up to lock in a 1 point gain. I'm glad I did.

I covered 300 shares of BOOM at $34.45 for a $369 gain (3.7%). I am still short 200 shares.

I went short 600 shares CAL at $30.16. I was turned onto this stock after seeing this chart over at Tim Knight's site. I covered 300 shares at $29.16 for a $300 gain (6.3%), and am riding the remaing 300 shares.

I was tempted to make a big short play on HAL towards the end of the day. The fact that the stock (and much of energy) could not hold onto the intraday gains is a bearish sign for a bearish sector. However, the parabolic drop sans any decent sized pullbacks, along with the extreme oversold levels, scared me away from making a big bearish bet, so I cut my normal position size (400-600 shares) and went short 200 shares at $28.52.

For future reference, I usually cut the position size on plays that I feel are more risky than usual.

I am still holding my full short positions in BBBY and UARM, along with the remaining 200 shares of BOOM, 300 shares CAL, and 200 shares HAL.

Today was a pretty good day, as my inclination to short has been paying off. However, UARM and BBBY are both slightly above my entry points. Although I have a feeling I will get stopped out (these stocks were just too strong on a bad day), I plan to hold them unless they reach their respective stop levels. I don't want to end up micromanaging these trades.

Energy Watchlist

I'm not sure which way energy stocks are going to turn from here, but they are at a critical level. I am watching the following energy stocks: ALJ, FTO, HOC, HAL, PCZ, ARD, OII and PTEN.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Chart: BOOM (and a Song clip)

Here is the chart on which I based the BOOM (Dynamic Materials Corp.) trade:




















Off Topics:

Another track from my playlist:
Fray's "Over My Head" Video Version


Live Accoustic

Today's Trade: BOOM

I went short 500 shares of BOOM (Dynamic Materials) at $35.68. I'll post a chart later tonight.

That's makes it four current short holdings. I had better be right!

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Chart: AKAM (and a Funny Bud Light Clip)

AKAM (Akamai Technologies) has been a powerful momentum stock over the past few months. However, it looks like it's due for a playable dip. The gap down on strong volume was the first thing that caught my eye. The technicals are sending signals as well. The RSI has gone from extremes to breaking down under the 70 level. The last time the stock did this was in April, resulting in a 3 point loss. Stochastics have also moved out of extreme levels. The arrows on the chart show some nice drops when this happens. Finally, MACD seems to be leveling off. These are all signs of a coming dip.

This is what I'd call a "contrarian move", as a short here is playing against the overall trend. If I enter a short position, I will make sure to use extreme caution and a tight stop.



















Off Topic:

One of my favorite beer commercial clips, "You were open, and now you are closed!":

Today's Trade: Short UARM

I went short 500 shares UARM (Under Armor Inc.) at $39.88 this morning.

The stock is butting up against resistance, has an extremely oversold stochastic that is pointing down, is inside the upper bollinger band for the first time in 5 days, a lower RSI than the first time it hit $40 and the MACD seems to have peaked. It looks like a big fat topping formation to me. Also note the arrows on the chart. Each time the stock has reached this exteme stochastic level, it has followed with a bearish move down.

Oil and Energy Ready to Crater,Thanks to Market Bloggers, Plus a Music Clip

Overall, not much changed on my watchlists today. However, there was one big development: metals, most notable gold, and oil services stocks bounced quite nicely today. I will be watching resistance lines in these stocks very closely over the next few days and, if it feels right, make some big short plays in these areas.

Here is a list of gold stock charts to flip through at your leisure. Also check out oil drillers, pipelines, majors, steel and aluminum.
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A heartfelt thanks to all who have linked posts from my site or added me to their blogroll. In the past week, that list includes, Trader Mike, The Kirk Report, Brett Steenbarger, High Chart Patterns, Instant Bull, Mustfeed, Tim Knight and Stockblogs. If I've left anybody out, please let me know.
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Off topics:
Here is one of my favorite R.E.M. songs. I hope the metal and oil sectors have at least one more downward thrust in them. If not, I'll be joining Michael Stipe singing "it's been a 'Bad Day' please don't take a picture" . . .

Monday, September 18, 2006

Elite Traders Aren't Afraid to Fail

I just had an IM chat with a trading buddy. After listening to me whine about my two losing trades this week, he asked me a question: How many times did Babe Ruth stike out? Then he signed off.

Well, I had to look it up. The answer is one thousand, three hundred thirty times. I'll say it again, one thousand, three hundred thirty times. That's what it took the Babe to hit 714 home runs and drive in over 2200 runs. Interesting. How about some other sports?

Michael Jordan made 12,192 shots, including some of the most clutch shots in the history of the NBA. Guess what? He missed even more, 12,361 to be precise.

My all-time favorite quarterback, Joe Montana threw 1,982 incomplete passes and 139 interceptions. He also completed 3,409 passes, 273 of which were touchdown passes.

What did I learn from this little exercise?

1. Elite players/traders fall down. The cliche is very true.
2. Elite players/traders are not afraid to fail.
3. Elite players/traders manage risk/reward.
4. Elite players/traders come through when it counts.
5. Elite players/traders learn from their mistakes
6. Elite players/traders control their emotions (Montana was often called Joe Cool).

I don't remember many of Montana's interceptions or Jordan's airballs, but these two plays are forever etched in my mind:



Today's Trades: HP and BBBY

I am short 250 shares HP at $23.38

I am short 250 shares BBBY at $37.55

I won't go into much detail since I posted charts of these two stocks last night. Stops on both stocks have been placed a little above the resistance lines.

Stocks to Watch: Week of 9-18-06

Looking ahead to the following week, my watchlist favors the short side by a margin of about 3:1. Stocks on my "longs" list include: NVDA, IGT, BRCM, AAPL, GROW and CHL. Stock on my "shorts" list include AA, SIL, HP, IOC, BOOM, RIO, DHI, NTRI, JOYG, CTXS, MOT, BBBY, UARM, AMLN and JTX.

Here are some potential shorts:










Friday, September 15, 2006

Week in Review: Trades, Plus NFL Picks and a Song Clip

I completed 4 trades this week:

BOOM: Short
Entry: $36.80
Exit: $35.35 & $33.90
Stop: $38.20
Risk: 3R gain
Hold Time: 5 trading days
Profit: +$1107 (+6%)

Notes: I played this trade correctly and did not give in to the temptation to bail before the stop h it. The stock is still on my watch list for shorts and the stochastic looks ready to turnover on a lower high. MACD has also gone negative.
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DHI: Short
Entry: $21.40
Exit: $23.10
Stop: $23.10
Risk: -1R loss
Hold Time: 3 trading days
Profit: -$810 (+7.1%)

Notes: The entry was okay, not great. The main problem was that my stop was too wide. I would have been better off waiting for a more ideal entry point, which may be right now. The stock looks like it's hit stronger resistance point and is ready to fall. It is still on my short watchlist.
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IHR: Long
Entry: $10.10
Exit: $9.86
Stop: $9.90
Risk: -1R loss
Hold Time: 12 trading days
Profit: -$130 (+2.3%)

Notes: I have no problems with this trade. A good setup that went bad.
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NUVO: Short
Entry: $19.19
Exit: $18.65
Stop: $20.05
Risk: .5 gain
Hold Time: 12 trading days
Profit: +$177 (+2.3%)

Notes: The stock looks like it will go down further, as it dropped big today. I probably pulled out too early, but the fact that it was option day today and I had been holding it for two weeks made me want to unload it. It's still on my short watchlist.
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Week Results:
I was up +344 for the week (+1.4%) with a 1.5R gain. The account is up to $25,344 (started on 9/5/06 at $25,000).

Boom still looks like a good short. Check out the stochastic and the long red candle that printed today.




















Off Topics:

Here are my NFL picks for week 2:

$200 Rams -3 over 49ers
$200 Jags +$120 over Steelers
$200 Viking +1 over Panthers
$200 Titans +12 over Chargers

I have $800 of my $1300 account at risk. The account started at $700 week 1.
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For all the fathers out there, here is Paul Simon's "Father and Daughter". You might want to listen to it while you chop onions, as there might be a tear or two that you'll want to cover up.

Thursday, September 14, 2006

Trading and Sports Pyschology

{Those visiting this site via TraderMike, Brett Steenbarger or Charles Kirk, please check out the rest of my site by clicking on "The Market Speculator" link here or above. Thanks for visiting!}

Trading psychologist extraordinaire Brett Steenbarger had an excellent post yesterday relating sports psychology to trading. I highly recommend it to anybody in the trading game.

This paragraph struck a cord with me:

"The finding that experts in a particular sport are better than novices, not merely at physical skills but also on the underlying perceptual, cognitive, and strategic components of sport, is robust in both laboratory and field research" (quoting Dr. Janet Starkes). In other words, when people become skilled, they literally learn to see things in new ways and think in new ways. It's not just a difference of hardware (having better memory, vision, or concentration); experts develop their own software: internal programs that enable them to recognize patterns and act upon them rapidly.


Here is some of my own anecdotal evidence. During my sophomore year, I was the most talented player on my high school basketball team. I knew it, my teammates knew it, and my coach knew it. When we played on the playgrounds, I was almost always the first or second pick and would dominate the games. However, during a camp before the season, these same players "schooled" me. It was disheartening and I was completely embarrassed. I was the guy that would screw up, get blasted by the coach and have to run extra to make up for my mistakes.

One day after practice, the coach called me into his office and explained to me that the kids I was playing with had been a part of school's feeder system and had been playing organized ball since they were seven years old (I had never played because my parents wanted me to focus on studies). They had a better "feel" for the game and could see things that I couldn't. The only way I'd make the team was by working on my "basketball IQ".

After this talk, I dedicated myself to understanding the game. Not only would I attend my own team's practices, I would sit in on the freshman and junior varsity practices. I taped tons of college and NBA games and devoured every book on basketball strategy I could find. My parents even shelled out some big bucks so I could attend the Michael Jordan camp.

It all paid off. By the end of the season, I understood things about the game that I was clueless about before. For example, I learned that basketball is a game of different speeds and misdirection. Whereas before I would run to a spot and cut all in one speed, I'd now go half speed to the spot and explode on the cut. Before the cut, I would look at the player guarding the lane. If he was eying the guy with the ball and not taking in the entire court, I knew the lane would be open.

Here is another "pattern" that I had figured out through watching tapes and repetition in practice. If a player guarded me with his right foot way in front of his left, I knew he liked to push the ballhandler to the right and was susceptible to a crossover. I would be able to drive into the lane at will against this guy. This, and the observation above, is something I had never thought about before. Now, it was second nature. You could say I had an "internal program" that would process the patterns in a way that would never work if I actually had to ask myself "where is his foot" during a game.

I can see this starting to happen in trading as well. Maybe it's because of my background and the need I feel to practice, but I rarely use scans, although many are readily available to me. Every night I start charting by looking at sectors that interest me for one reason or another. From there, I go through all the stocks in those sectors (I like to use prophet.net for this). This used to take a long time, as I would go through what I was looking for in each individual stock, point by point. Now, I look at a chart and within a few seconds I either toss it and move on or put it in my watchlist for further study. It doesn't even feel like I'm thinking anymore. I just "know" that stock works for me. It's the "internal program" again. Interestingly, I don't use indicators on my prelimary "toss or watch" analysis, but when I later scrutinize the "watch" stocks with indicators, they almost always are at important levels (for instance, an oversold Stochastic or diverging MACD).

The moral of this longwinded story is that it's not the most talented players that become champions, it's the players with the best understanding of the game. This applies to any field, including our own. You gain that understanding with a strong work ethic, practice and in-depth analysis. Hey, if you don't believe me, ask yourself this question: Why is it that Larry Bird has plenty of championship hardware while the likes of J.R. Rider and Christian Laettner have none? Or for the non-sports inclined, why is it that Marty Schwartz can make millions trading while so many high IQ'ed doctors and lawyers come away from trading scarred for life? I'm willing to bet it has a little something to do with what we just talked about.

Again, please make sure to read the good doctor's post, and apply his teaching to your own trading.

Chart: BOBJ and a Song Clip (The Shins)

I am keeping an eye on BOBJ's breakout point since the stock was smacked down by the 200 day MA. A move below the breakout point would set it up for a big fall. However, if the stock consolidates on low volume and does not dip below $29, it could be ready for another leg up.





















Off Topics:

It looks like you guys are enjoying the non-market related clips. I've received some requests for songs on my playlist, so I'll post some songs every now and then. Here's one that's been on the top of my rotation for over a year now, New Slang by The Shins. Fans of the Zack Braff's movie Garden State know it's the song Natalie Portman is listening to in the waiting room.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Chart: AMD

My interest was piqued in AMD after reading this commentary from Tickersense. Upgrades from Lehman seem to correspond with uptrends in the stock, while holds accompany downtrends.

Here is the daily chart. A good entry point will be a test of new support at $26. Note the increased volume in the stock, which indicates accumulation. The fact that stochastics are making higher lows is a sign of strength.

Chart: WFR

I will be watching the close of WFR (MEMC Electronics) today. If the stock prints a long tail and does not close above $39.50 resistance, the stock will likely head back toward support and provide a decent short opportunity with a preliminary $37.50 target. The stock does seem to be under accumulation, so I would make this a quick trade, as it is likely to test resistance again.

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

Market Scribbles and a Clip

Since I am not at the computer for long stretches during the trading day, I keep a written journal in which I scribble notes. Here are today's scribbles:

-The fact that volume has consistently been heavier on down days is more evidence of a coming collapse.

-Watch the steel sector. It's handled the energy and metals selloff better than other markets. Is accumulation occuring?

-Money's flowing out of energy. Where is it moving? This is an important development to watch.

-Watch Apple as it challenges highs.

-Lots more room for oil and metals to fall, but wait for a bounce before shorting.

-Ignore the noise and follow the bigger picture. Make sure to focus on weekly charts for trends before moving to daily and 60 minute charts.

I was a little bumbed out about the DHI trade, so to chill out I watched Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. What a great movie. Jim Carrey is probably the most underrated *serious* actor of his generation. The movie defies categorization, as it is a meloncholly, exciting, pyschological, romantic, science fiction thriller. The main question is: What would you do if you could erase a bad part of your life from your memory. Fitting that I watched it after making a bad trade. Here is a selection of montage clips:

Montage set to Radiohead's Karma Police:


Fantastic remix montage:


A montage set to Beck:


This one's set to Grazed Knees. Great song.


Montage to Coldplay's Scientist:


Finally, montage set to "Sun and Rain:

Today's Trade: DHI

I covered my DHI short at 23.10 for an $810 loss (-7.1%). The trading account is now at $25,297 (+1.1 % since 9/5/06).

I'll analyze this trade when I do a trade review. Suffice to say, it was a bad trade from beginning to end.

Energy and Materials Charts and Clips

As promised, here are some promising short setups for the energy and materials sectors. Since there already has been a big drop, in most cases I would not initiate short positions just yet. There is a chance that today was a capitulation event, and most charts are showing oversold readings. The lower risk play would be to wait for strength into the break down points, followed by confirmation of a new thrust down.





I highly recommend Spike Lee's brilliant "When the Levees Broke" documentry on HBO. Here is a clip of Kanye West's famous "George Bush doesn't care about black people" statement.


Bush on the hardest part of his job:


David Letterman takes apart O'Reilly

NFL Recap

The first week of NFL is over and I, or should I say my wallet, couldn't be happier. I won two of my three pics, and the two that I won had significantly bigger position sizes than the loser.

$500 Rams +4 over the Broncos -----> +500
$100 Bucs/Baltimore over 34 --------> -100
$200 Vikings+4.5 over Redskins -----> +200 (+600 total)

The football account is now at 1300, gaining 85 percent after one week.

Monday, September 11, 2006

Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) Break Support

The Energy and Materials ETFs, XLE and XLB, both broke the support lines I pointed to in last night's charts. Now it's time to look for shorting opportunities in the stocks that make up these ETFs. I'll post some charts later tonight.

Today's Trade: BOOM

I covered the remaining 250 shares of BOOM at $33.90 for a $750 gain. The entire 500 share trade netted $1107 (+6 %). According to my risk parameters, the trade resulted in a 2R gain. My trading account went from $25,000 to $26,107 (+4.4%).

Sunday, September 10, 2006

A Few Sector ETFs and Clips

Here are a few sector ETFs that caught my eye. In terms of technicals, I'm basically just looking at support and resistance points since I don't trade the ETFs. I like the volatility of individual stocks, so once a sector ETF shows it's hand by breaking support or resistance, I move over to the stocks that make up that ETF.

XLB (Materials)



















XLV (Healthcare)



















XLE (Energy)



















QQQQ (Nasdaq 100)



















Here are a couple of more clips. If you haven't already, also check out yesterday's clips and as usual, make sure your volume is on.

7.5 G's in an F-18 (Advil anyone?)


Mac Spoof: Upgrading


Ali G interviews a cranky Andy Rooney

Friday, September 08, 2006

Disk Drives and Some Cool Clips

My end of the week sector review showed that disk drives look especially vulnerable. A two week uptrend was wiped out in two days. A slow steady rise followed by a hard fall spell trouble. A close below 143 will have me looking for short setups. If the stock bounces from this point, an uptrend towards 155 resistance is a possibility, so I would wait for a confirmation before shorting.



















Here are a few videos for your viewing pleasure:

Mr. Roboto:


Everyday:
This one's a trip. Dude took a picture of himself *everyday* for six years. The song choice gives it a sobering, meloncholy feel.


Russell Peters, the funniest Indian comic alive:

Today's Trades: BOOM and DHI

I covered half my position in BOOM at $35.35 for a gain of $387.50. I still have a 250 share short position in the stock. I will move my stop on the remaining 250 shares up to $37.10, which means I am guaranteed (assuming I could get my stop price) a $367.50 gain on the BOOM trade, and my profit could be much higher depending on how the rest of the trade works out. I consider this part of the trade a "free ride", as I have locked in a gain that can only be improved upon.

I went short 500 shares of DHI at an average price of $21.40. This housing stock has been in a prolonged downtrend and has continually failed when reaching it's 50 day moving average. Also note that MACD is about to turnover. I will place a stop at 22 with a profit target of $20, which give me a 1:2.3 risk/reward.

Charts: BWNG and AMD

BWNG (Broadwing) has held up well against recent market pullbacks and could make a run at April highs if it clears $12. I am considering buying now or waiting for the breakout. If I were to buy now, a stop would be placed under the $11-12 congestion zone.
























Take a look at the long PBV bar on AMD's chart, which shows up in the $24-26 range. A break down below the PBV bar could put the stock into free fall, as there is not a whole lot of support beneath this point. Also note that Elder's force index is about to cross the zero line. Zero line crosses have proven to be a powerful signal with this stock. I will consider shorting on a breakdown below $24.

The Bear on Wall Street

This here clip is dedicated to Tim Knight, perma-bear extraordinaire, who has probably gone through some of the same trials and tribulations as the bear in this clip. Stick around until the end, as the bear attacking the Wall Street Bull is hilarious! As always, pump up the volume when playing clips.

Are You Ready For Some Football?

About the only thing (besides my family) that ignites my passion more than trading is football, so you can *bet* I'm excited that the NFL's opening weekend is upon us. Vegas is the place to be this time of year! Below are this week's picks with dollar amounts.

$500 Rams +4 over the Broncos
$100 Bucs/Baltimore over 34
$200 Vikings +4.5 over the Redskins

Rationale:
The Rams are a decent sized underdog at home, and I believe Vegas has it all wrong when it comes to this team. They've got firepower at all the offensive skill positions and a new coach that knows how to use it. Denver's coach is playing havoc with Plummer's already fragile psyche and the Bronco's won't have the Mile High edge. Biggest postion size here because the Rams are home.

The Bucs and Ravens averaged a combined 35.5 points/game last season and both teams have more offensive firepower this season.

The Redskins have too many new parts and a old QB who doesn't have it anymore. The Vikings have a bunch of new parts, but they have a QB that does still have it and the best offensive line in football, anchored by Brik, Hutchineson and McKinney.

Here's a clip featuring the cast of Lost doing the Monday Night Football Promo

Thursday, September 07, 2006

Chart: TIE

I see three potential low risk ways to play TIE:

Present Long: The stock has entered an area of support. PBV bars show strong support in the $25-27 range, with resistance between $30-32. An entry off a bouce from the 200 day MA would be ideal, with a stop just under $25.

Future Long: A breakout above $30 would clear short term resistance and offer a $35 target.

Future Short: A break down below $25 support would set the stock up for a major fall.

The two long setups are short term plays and must be watched carefully, as a longer term top seems to be forming.

Micromanaging Trades: I'm Making Some Progress

Just after entering my short position in BOOM, the stock jumped about 1 1/2 points but was still under the initial stop. Although the stop was set just above $38, I was inches away from clicking on the "cover" button once BOOM hit $37.50. Luckily, I remembered what I had wrote about micromanaging and how it hurt my August performance. I walked away from the computer, as I didn't want to tempt myself, and stuck with the trade. The stock is now trading just below my short entry and I have currently saved myself over $650.

I know it's going to be a tough battle, but it looks like I'm making progress in when it comes to micromanaging.

Today's Trades and Note on Current Trend: NUVO and IHR

I made two trades this morning:

Long 500 shares of IHR at 10.11. The stock is holding up well above support at 10.

Short 300 shares of NUVO at an average price of $19.18.

I am also still short 500 shares of BOOM.

The fact that I went both short and long reflects my hesitance in predicting whether yesterday and this morning's weakness is a healthy pullback from a strong upmove or invalidates the move and resumes the downtrend. I firmly believe that we will soon enter a hellish bear market that will take out multiple supports and beat down inflexible bulls. There are just too many negative variables (seasonality, elections, economy, technicals) to expect the uptrend to continue. However, tops generally take time to form and wall street has a tendancy to chase once bulls show some strength, so we still could be in a short term uptrend. I'll wait for confirmation before making any big bets in either direction.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

Chart: NUVO (Short)

NUVO (Nuvelo) looks like a good short candidate, as it broke down from a strong uptrend on above average volume. The quick rise leaves room for at least a two point fall, with support in the $17.50 range. Notice that RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all turning down.

August Performance Review: Micro-Managing Trades

I just completed my August trading review and I'm not as happy as I was pre-review. While I did post a decent 9 percent gain, a common trading flaw became apparent that kept me from having a huge month: micro-managing trades and pulling out before my stops were hit.

I pulled out of 8 trades before hitting my predetermined stop, and 7 of them never hit the stop and would have given me decent sized gains. I need to remember why I placed the stops where I did in the first place (usually just under support/resistance/price-volume bars) and stick with the trade, no matter how many other opportunities I see while waiting. My biggest problem is that the grass always seems to be greener on the other side of the fence. I see all these setups on my watchlist and become impatient with my own trade. This certainly is not a recipe for success, so I need to do a better job of keeping my emotions in check.

So my goal for September is to allow my trades to work for me and not micro-manage them. I may even take the drastic measure of only checking my trades and watchlists 3 times per day, at the open, noon and close. Wish me luck, I'm gonna need it!

Note: I firmly believe that psychological development is one of the most crucial aspects to trading. I highly recommend Brett Steenbarger's website, which is the most comprehensive trading site that I know of.

Tags: TraderFeed, Steenbarger, stops

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Short Trade and Chart: Boom Looks Ready to Bust

A "topping pattern" seems to be forming in BOOM, peaking at 42.50 in May, followed by a couple of weak attempts at remounting by bulls. Notice that the Stochastic is extremely overbought at 90, and the stock has failed in the recent past when that number has hit. The move does have a nerve tingling quality to it since it has been strong on the recent up move, but the fact that the fast stochastic has crossed down below the slower one lends some comfort. This trade is not for the faint of heart, and a tight stop is a must.

I went short 500 shares of BOOM at an average price of $36.90. My stop will be placed just above the $37.50 resistance zone and my target is $35 for the first 250 shares and $32.50 for the remaing 250 shares.

A Little Bit About Me

I was born in Southern California in 197 . . .okay, so you don’t need to know everything. I’ll start with college. Like just about every point in my life before and after, I was confused about what I wanted to do and had six different majors before settling on Philosophy. I became enamored with the criminal justice system and decided I would get into a “top 20” law school, find a job at a big time D.A.’s office, climb the ranks and fight the good fight. While I accomplished the first three, I realized I was not fighting the good fight. My philosophical background had me questioning just about everything I did at the D.A.’s office. How do I send a man to prison when I am not one hundred percent positive he did the crime? How do I argue that a drug offender spend half his life in prison while a sex offender is out in 2 years? Why am I helping to uphold laws I don’t believe in? How do I live with myself? One day I woke up and realized I couldn’t, and quit that same day. A lot of people thought I was crazy, but I try to live life as Nietzsche’s Uberman would, following my own voice rather than the herd. As you all know, this is a successful principle in trading as well as life.

Now I was back to being confused about what to do with my life. While working a new job for which I felt no passion, I became more and more fascinated with the stock market. I had been trading, creating systems and reading everything I could get my hands on about the markets since high school, but it had never occurred to me that I could do it full time. That changed when I started making more money trading than I was at my day job. Trading full-time seemed like a crazy idea, but then I started reading about people who were doing it for a living and I thought “why not”. So that is now my passion and career goal, to become a professional trader. Once I have $500,000 of disposable income, I will walk into my boss’s office and peak the immortal words of Johnny Paycheck. Well maybe not like that, as I do have a good job and my co-workers are great. But you get the gist. Once I become a trader, I never want to work for anybody but myself again.

In 2004, I was almost halfway towards my goal ($235,000), but life’s forces butted in. I had a daughter, my wife wanted a bigger house, and I wanted some new toys. So I’ve started over as I did the last time, with $25,000 to try and build into a fortune. It’s even more fun this time, as you guys will be watching my every move.

So there it is, my plan to become a professional trader. With the advent of the Internet, I’ve had a lot of help along the way, from a group of people who probably don’t even know how much they’ve inspired me. If you’ve somehow found this little blog floating around in cyberspace, I hope it helps inspire you even 1/10th as much as the sites on my “blogroll” did me.

Goodluck and keep on trading!
Paul, the self proclaimed "Market Speculator"

Chart: PAAS

PAAS looks ready to make a move towards the upper 20's. A double bottom seems to have formed while MACD has turned positive and stochastics formed a higher low. I would play it safe and watch for a test of $22.50 support before entry, with a stop placed in the $20.50-21.50 congestion area.























Tags: Silver, MACD, Stochastic, PAAS, double bottom

Formerly known as "thestocktradingguy"

Many of you were regulars at the previous blog, "The StockTrading Guy", and have been wondering why I had stopped posting. Well, for some unexplained reason I ran into technical difficulties and was no longer able to publish any posts. After over a month of frustration I've decided to give up on trying to fix the problems and start anew.

So welcome to my new blog, "The Market Speculator". While I'm still working out exactly how I would like to use this blog, it will most likely continue to work as a sort of online trading diary, with plenty of charts, watchlists, notes on trading strategy, and links to my favorite stock trading sites.

My old site can be viewed at www.stocktradingguy.blogspot.com.