The Market Speculator

The diary of a market speculator who trades stocks and commodities using technical analysis, chart patterns and trend following methods. I can be contacted at

Friday, December 02, 2011

Trade: GS

I went long GS on the breakout of the moving average. Notice the bottoming "W" pattern and the positive volume that has has developed within the pattern. My stop is just under the moving average at around $97-98. The targets are around $110 and $115. Entry was at $99.88. This gives me a phenomenal 5:1 reward to risk ratio.

Monday, October 10, 2011

SPY: Positive Divergence and Moving Average Breakout

Take note of the higher lows in OBV and RSI. These are good signs for SPY. Today's breakout lacked volume, the divergences lead me to believe the moving average might hold.

Friday, August 05, 2011

Trade Alert: SPY, AMZN, NFLX and AAPL

I'm finally ready to enter long. The market is very oversold with stochastics dipping under 10. I just entered SPY, AAPL, NFLX and AMZN. I will use tight stops and manage risk closely.

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

3 Bounce Entries For SPY

While SPY is oversold, I would like to see more weakness before entering long based on oversold conditions. The chart below shows three great bounce entries:

Thursday, December 09, 2010

NFLX Trade

I entered NFLX today at $186.11. Here is what I wrote to trade report members:

My watchlist is rather small right now and there aren't any good entries, so I'm going to take this opportunity to analyze a focus list stock that is not an easy sell as a long or short right now, NFLX.

NFLX has been a 2010 juggernaut momentum stock. It's been the textbook trend pullback trade. In 2010 there have been at least eight good opportunities to enter, and I, along with many of you, have traded the stock successfully. There is another pullback that normally would be a good entry, however there is a key difference in this pullback whencompared to the others---volume.

Take a look at the enclosed chart. Each arrow signifies a pullback buying opportunity that was successful. Notice that the volume pattern in each of these instances shows higher gray bars than red bars. This tells us that the stock was being accumulated. The pullbacks were natural profit taking that occurs in all uptrends.

Now take a look at the current pullback. The red bars are nearly as high as the gray bars, and there are more than one. This is a concern. There are signs of distribution. Now this does not mean the stock is definitely going to fall here. However, it needs to be noted. There is a less of an "edge" to entry here. Many times there will be one more boost higher before a big fall. So keep this in mind. If a major support area breaks, be ready for entry.

Because we focus on risk/reward ratios, it's still okay to enter long. If we take a small loss, that's fine as long as we continually take 2:1 or 3:1 trades. When I see distribution starting to settle in, I like to get closer to 3:1 because the probability of a successful trade decreases.

If entering here, around $185-186, the natural target and stops based on support and resistance would be 179 and 205. That gives us the 3:1 risk reward we need for this setup.

I just entered at $186.11. Remember, you have to be willing to embrace a small loss here. We are looking at long term gain, not the result of one trade or the short term win/loss record.

I'm Back

I plan to start posting regularly again.

Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Today's Trades: AAPL, DZZ, RIMM, SPY

Here are charts of the trades I made today. Note that I consider the shorts are early "speculative" trades until there is a confirmation candle.

SPY (short)--hitting the bottom of the $118-120 resistance range. Stochastic overbought at 89. Will add more close to $120.

RIMM (long)--breaking ot of triangle after remounting 50 day moving average.

Gold (short via inverse ETF DZZ, using GLD chart to show from long perspective)--extended. much more so than previous runnups.

AAPL (short)-- extended. overbought stochastic at +90 reading. RSI divergence.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Trades: GMCR and AAPL

I exited the AAPL short today at $183 for a nice gain. Stock is nearing support. If support breaks, I may re-enter.

This morning I entered GMCR SHORT based on the breakdown-pullback setup. Stop is above the moving average.